Nigeria’s daily petrol supply fell by 23 percent in September, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased production, with rising exports and declining deliveries to the domestic market limiting the volume available locally.

The September 2026 factsheet of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), released on Thursday, showed that daily petrol receipts dropped from 50.5 million litres in August to 38.7 million litres in September. Over the same period, estimated daily consumption rose by seven percent to 44.4 million litres.

The figures mean that the market received 11.8 million fewer litres of petrol daily than it did in August, while reported consumption exceeded September’s receipts by 5.7 million litres per day.

Domestic petrol receipts fell by 21 percent, from 35.9 million litres daily to 28.5 million litres, while imports declined by 30 percent, from 14.6 million litres to 10.2 million litres.

The decline came despite an increase in production at the Dangote refinery, whose average daily petrol output rose by 13 per cent, from 41.94 million litres in August to 47.22 million litres in September.

The refinery also operated at an average capacity utilisation rate of 105.98 percent, up from 105.21 percent in August, against its installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

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However, higher production did not translate into increased domestic deliveries. The refinery supplied an average of 28.5 million litres of petrol daily to the Nigerian market in September, down from 35.87 million litres in August.

Meanwhile, its daily petrol exports increased by 59 percent, from 9.73 million litres to 15.47 million litres. Petrol stocks also rose from 360.4 million litres at the end of August to 366.2 million litres in September, as the refinery added 3.25 million litres daily to its inventories.

The figures point to a widening difference between production and the volume reaching the domestic market. Although the refinery produced more petrol, deliveries to local buyers declined as exports increased and stocks accumulated.

The supply decline coincided with elevated petrol prices across the country. The NMDPRA’s indicative prices stood at ₦1,371.01 per litre in Lagos, ₦1,420.01 in Abuja, ₦1,447.75 in Kano and ₦1,464.75 in Maiduguri.

Among the surveyed centres, the highest actual retail price recorded was ₦1,445 per litre in Abuja, while the lowest was ₦1,293.75 in Lagos.

Beyond finished petroleum products, the report showed that domestic refineries received an average of 618,000 barrels of crude oil daily in September, nine per cent below the 681,000 barrels recorded in August.

Dangote processed an estimated 689,000 barrels per day, exceeding the month’s reported crude receipts by about 71,000 barrels daily. The regulator attributed the difference to the refinery’s use of crude oil held in inventory, meaning its utilisation rate above 100 percent did not indicate that it received more crude during September.

Data covering January to September showed that local refineries received 156.51 million barrels of crude oil. Domestic sources supplied 125.85 million barrels, while imported crude accounted for 30.66 million barrels. Nigerian crude therefore represented 80.4 per cent of total refinery intake during the nine months, compared with 19.6 per cent from imports.

The pressure on fuel supply was more pronounced in the diesel market, where daily receipts fell by 40 per cent to 8.7 million litres in September, from 14.5 million litres in August. This was the lowest level recorded in the 13 months covered by the regulator’s data.

Domestic diesel receipts dropped by 39 per cent, from 13.2 million litres daily to 8.1 million litres, while imports fell by 54 per cent, from 1.3 million litres to 600,000 litres. Daily diesel consumption, however, edged up from 14.3 million litres to 14.5 million litres.

Dangote’s diesel production increased by 35 per cent to 24.32 million litres daily, but domestic deliveries fell from 12.37 million litres in August to 8.14 million litres in September. Daily diesel exports climbed by 82 per cent, from 8.75 million litres to 15.91 million litres.

The refinery ended September with 232.5 million litres of diesel in stock, compared with 137.2 million litres a month earlier.

Among modular refineries, Walter Smith operated at 62.25 percent capacity utilisation, Edo at 104.24 percent, Aradel at 31.90 percent and OPAC at 18.43 per cent, while Duport remained shut down. Their combined diesel supply stood at 620,000 litres daily, equivalent to 4.3 percent of national consumption.

Cooking gas recorded a more favourable supply trend. Daily receipts of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose by nine per cent to 4.7 kilotonnes in September. Domestic supply increased by 50 per cent to 4.5 kilotonnes, while imports dropped by 85 per cent to 0.2 kilotonnes.

Domestic sources accounted for about 96 percent of total LPG receipts. However, daily consumption also increased by eight per cent to 5.2 kilotonnes, exceeding the reported receipts.

In the gas sector, total average daily supply, including volumes delivered to Nigeria LNG Limited, declined by 2.2 per cent to 4.822 billion cubic feet in September. Domestic gas supply fell by 6.7 percent to 2.066 billion cubic feet daily, while deliveries to Nigeria LNG increased by 1.5 percent to 2.756 billion cubic feet per day.

Meiza Nigeria