After nearly two weeks of war-driven price hikes, fuel prices in Nigeria may soon fall thanks to easing global oil prices following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by the United States.

According to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Associate of Nigeria (IPMAN), crude oil prices, which had soared to US$79 per barrel for Brent, have now dropped significantly to $68.14 for and $65.38 for West Texas intermediate. The decline comes in the wake of diplomatic breakthroughs between Israel and Iran, relieving global supply fears and cooling international markets.

For Nigerians, this dip has meaningful implication. In just 12 days, petrol prices surged dramatically across major cities. The Dangote Refinery raised its ex-depot price from ₦825 to ₦880 per litre, prompting partner stations like MRS to hike pump prices in Lagos and Abuja to ₦925 – ₦945 per litre. Other players like NNPC, NIPCO, Ranoil, and Eterna were selling for as high as ₦975/litre in places like Abuja.

“As global oil prices go down, the domestic price of petrol would also go down,” said Chinedu Ukadike, spokesperson for IPMAN. “The cost of production would reduce, and so would the forex burden.”

 Ukadike stressed that price fluctuations are an inherent part of Nigeria’s deregulated downstream oil sector. With subsidy gone, local prices are now tightly linked to global crude movements and forex market conditions.

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Why it matters

 For everyday Nigerian, a litre of petrol above ₦900 means higher cost of transportation, more expensive food, and heavier pressure on already stretched household incomes. Many have been calling for a reprieve, especially with the rising food inflation and stagnant wages.

While the Dangote Refinery has been touted as a game changer, its recent prices adjustments has shown the limitation of relying on a single facility amidst global instability. However, marketers are optimistic that if current crude trends hold and forex conditions improve, prices could retreat to around ₦800, or even lower in the coming weeks.

Ukadike also used the opportunity to call on the federal government to establish an energy bank, which would provide credit to oil marketers as a buffer against future price shocks.

Whether this week’s global détente leads to lasting local relief remains to be seen. But for now, Nigerians may finally have a reason to expect a breather at the pumps.

Anita Chinedu