Nigeria’s indigenous oil and gas sector may be heading toward a period of consolidation, as operators face increasing pressure to secure funding and sustain newly acquired assets.

Managing Director of Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, Tony Attah, said many local operators will need to merge or form strategic alliances over the next decade to remain competitive in a capital-intensive industry.

Speaking at the Nigerian Content Academy Lecture in Abuja, Attah projected that “five big Nigerian independent oil companies will emerge in the next 10 years,” signalling a shift away from a fragmented landscape toward fewer, more financially stable players.

“The future of this industry and business in the world is about collaboration,” he said.

His remarks reflect a growing reality within Nigeria’s upstream sector, where indigenous companies are taking on a larger share of production following the gradual exit of international oil companies (IOCs) from onshore and shallow water assets.

“When IOCs leave mature basins in other climes, international independents take over from them. But Nigerian independents take over in Nigeria. That transition is showing value today,” Attah noted, adding that “more than 50 percent of Nigerian crude oil production is associated with independents.”

While that shift marks a significant milestone for local participation, it also introduces new pressures. Many of the acquired assets require sustained investment to maintain output, optimise production, and remain commercially viable.

Against this backdrop, Attah argued that scale will become increasingly important.

“I see a future where more Nigerian independents would have to consolidate… The consolidation would have to be among the others to create the other three or five,” he said.

He pointed to the formation of Renaissance Energy as a practical example of how collaboration can unlock opportunities that may be difficult for individual companies to achieve independently. The company emerged from a consortium involving ND Western, Aradel Energy, Waltersmith Petroleum Development Company, First Exploration and Petroleum Development Company, and Petrolin Trading.

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Beyond consolidation, Attah identified access to funding as the central constraint shaping the future of the industry.

“Local content in Nigeria is no longer a policy aspiration; it is a capital execution challenge,” he said, underscoring the widening gap between asset ownership and the ability to finance operations effectively.

He outlined several funding pathways available to operators, including capital market listings, private equity, Eurobond issuances, joint venture structures, prepayment and offtake financing arrangements, and traditional bank facilities. However, he emphasised that access to these funding sources depends on strong fundamentals.

“Without structure, governance and ambition, nobody will finance you,” he said.

According to Attah, companies seeking capital must meet key bankability criteria such as proven reserves, stable production profiles, strong governance frameworks, credible operating track records, and risk management strategies, including hedging against price volatility.

“Finding a solution to funding gaps is a big opportunity in itself,” he added, noting that “capital follows value.”

He also acknowledged ongoing efforts to address financing gaps on the continent, particularly the establishment of the African Energy Bank by the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation and Afreximbank, with support from the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board.

However, he noted that more needs to be done.

“Accelerating Africa’s energy financing is a challenge,” he said, adding that “equity financing is not everything,” and that operators must clearly define their own contributions to projects.

His broader message pointed to the need for stronger intra-African collaboration, stressing that “Africa needs to do business with Africa.”

The discussion also highlighted operational and structural issues within the industry. Concerns were raised about delays in payments to service providers, a long-standing issue affecting contractors and vendors across the sector.

Responding, Attah warned that such practices could undermine credibility and limit growth.

“Your business will not grow if you keep owing,” he said, urging operators to maintain discipline in fulfilling contractual obligations.

On workforce dynamics, he noted a gradual shift in talent away from traditional oil and gas roles, as younger professionals increasingly gravitate toward emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and robotics. This trend, he suggested, is contributing to a tightening pool of technical expertise within the industry.

Taken together, Attah’s remarks point to an industry in transition, one where ownership is becoming more local, but success will increasingly depend on access to capital, operational scale, and the ability to build credible, well-structured businesses.

Meiza Nigeria