As Nigeria edges into the festive season, a period that usually brings fuller markets, heavier spending, and a brief sense of relief for many families, the mood this year is noticeably different. Prices are still biting, Christmas shopping is already slow, and for most households, the supposed “cooling” inflation has not translated into cheaper food or easier living.

That disconnect is at the centre of a new warning from the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), which says the sharp fall in the inflation rate has yet to make any meaningful difference in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.

On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline inflation dropped to 16.05 percent in October, one of the steepest declines in months. But according to Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the CPPE, the relief captured in the data is not showing up on kitchen tables, in transport fares, or in the cost of basic household needs.

Yusuf described the drop as an encouraging milestone for economic stability, but stressed that the lived experience of Nigerians tells a different story. “The full welfare benefits are yet to be sufficiently felt by households due to persistent structural constraints, especially in food supply, transportation, energy, housing, and essential services,” he said.

His argument mirrors what many families have been saying for weeks: rice is still expensive, transport costs remain punishing, and electricity and cooking gas continue to squeeze tight budgets. With December approaching, these pressures are expected to intensify rather than ease.

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Yusuf explained that the moderation in inflation was driven by base effects, exchange rate stability, and improving macroeconomic indicators. Similar declines were observed across food and core inflation indices. Yet, he warned that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly high in the household essentials that matter most: food, transportation, housing, utilities, education, and health. Together, these categories account for 84 percent of Nigeria’s inflation profile.

According to him, the supply-side problems underpinning high living costs, rising logistics expenses, energy shortages, insecurity in agricultural regions, and climate-related disruptions are still firmly in place. These issues are blunting the welfare gains Nigerians should be feeling from the headline inflation decline.

He added that Nigeria’s economic landscape is showing clearer signs of stability, helped by improving coordination across monetary, fiscal, and foreign-exchange policies. The significant drop in October, he said, was partly due to the high inflation recorded in October last year, creating a statistical base effect that deepened the current decline.

On the foreign-exchange market, Yusuf noted that the naira has shown modest improvement and steadier performance in recent months, contributing to lower imported inflation in sectors heavily reliant on foreign inputs and energy. This progress, he said, stems from coordinated policy actions such as tighter monetary conditions, improved FX liquidity, reduced speculative demand for dollars, and rising investor confidence.

Still, the gains remain fragile. Yusuf emphasised that tackling the root causes of cost escalation, high logistics and energy costs, expensive credit, climate shocks, insecurity in farming zones, and an ageing agricultural workforce remains essential. Without addressing these structural obstacles, he warned, the disinflation trend may not translate into real, felt relief for citizens.

For now, many households are preparing for a subdued festive season, watching the numbers fall on paper while their daily expenses continue to rise. The CPPE’s message is clear: until the government’s reforms reach food systems, transportation networks, and energy supply, Nigerians will continue to feel the squeeze, regardless of what the inflation charts say.

Meiza Nigeria