IMF names Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Nigeria did not make the cut
Nigeria has been left out of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest list of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, despite the touted recent signs of recovery in its GDP and oil output. The omission, announced in the IMF’s October 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, has stirred national conversation about why one of Africa’s biggest economies and largest numbers of people is losing pace to its smaller, reform-driven peers.
The report, released on Thursday, identifies Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda as the continent’s leading growth drivers for 2025, citing policy stability and diversified economic structures.
Nigeria, however, did not make the list.
According to the IMF, sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected to rise to 4.1 percent in 2025, up from 3.8 percent this year, “supported by stronger performances in non-resource-intensive economies.” The Fund noted that while resource-dependent nations like Nigeria are recovering, their growth remains “fragile and exposed to commodity volatility”.
“The region’s recovery is strengthening, but uneven. Non-resource-intensive economies continue to outperform those dependent on commodities,” the IMF said.
Interestingly, the IMF slightly revised Nigeria’s growth projection upward to 3.9 percent for 2025, from an earlier 3.4 percent estimate, crediting improved oil production and modest growth in services. Yet, this is still below the pace of the continent’s frontrunners.
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In a report by Punch, analysts observed that Nigeria’s non-appearance on the IMF list “reflects both structural challenges and the slower pace of diversification in Africa’s most populous nation”. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recorded a 4.23 percent year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2025, up from 3.48 percent in Q2 2024, but the expansion has not translated into broad-based economic stability.
Indeed, in the last two years, many more Nigerians have been plunged into poverty, according to World Bank’s April 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief for Nigeria. Petrol subsidy removal and the sharp devaluation of the naira brought about hyperinflation, thereby reducing the purchasing power of households.
Economic shocks, growing insecurity and stubborn inflation have worsened poverty in both rural and urban areas. The report indicates at least 54 percent – a staggering 130 million people – are living in poverty. It is estimated that Nigeria accounts for 15 percent of the world’s poor people.
The IMF also expressed concern over growing domestic borrowing across sub-Saharan Africa, warning that high debt servicing could “crowd out vital social spending”. In Nigeria’s case, domestic debt accounts for over 60 percent of total public debt, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO).
Although the Federal Government has pledged to sustain ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms aimed at stabilising the naira and curbing inflation, experts argue that Nigeria needs deeper structural changes to regain its place among the continent’s growth leaders.
For now, the IMF’s list delivers a clear message that Africa’s economic pulse is quickening, but Nigeria is struggling to keep rhythm.
