Despite growing conversations about local refining and fuel self-sufficiency, a greater percentage of the petrol consumed in Nigeria in 2025 still came from abroad. Imported fuel remained the backbone of movement across the country. New data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reveal that imported fuel accounted for 62.47 percent of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit consumption during the year.

This continued dependence is striking, especially given the much-anticipated entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery into the market, alongside limited output from state-owned refineries and several modular facilities. Despite steady progress in domestic production and distribution, imports still carried the bulk of the load.

According to the regulator’s latest midstream and downstream sector factsheet, Nigeria consumed an estimated 19 billion litres of petrol in 2025. Of this, oil marketing companies imported approximately 12 billion litres, while domestic refineries supplied roughly seven and a half billion litres. In practical terms, nearly two out of every three litres burned on Nigerian roads still came from abroad.

The figures are based on volumes trucked into the local market, calculated using average daily consumption across each month. They reflect a familiar pattern; even with increased local refining activity, Nigeria remains tied to foreign fuel supply chains. The Dangote refinery, currently the country’s only operational large-scale private refinery, did ramp up output during the year, but not enough to tilt the balance decisively.

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There may be some movement ahead. Petrol imports are expected to decline in 2026 if the Federal Government proceeds with plans to introduce a 15 percent import tariff on Premium Motor Spirit. The proposed tariff, approved by President Bola Tinubu, is scheduled to take effect in the first quarter of the year and is aimed at encouraging local production while easing pressure on foreign exchange.

For decades, this dependence on imports has shaped Nigeria’s fuel story. Despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, the country relied almost entirely on imported petrol after its refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna fell into prolonged disrepair. As these facilities became largely inactive, imports filled the gap, drawing heavily on scarce foreign exchange and, for many years, operating under a costly subsidy system.

The 2025 figures suggest that while Nigeria is no longer standing still, it has not yet fully turned the corner. Local refining is growing, but the journey away from import dependence remains unfinished, shaped as much by policy choices as by the pace of production on the ground.

Meiza Nigeria