In the final quarter of 2025, Nigerian businesses learned a familiar but uncomfortable lesson: festive seasons no longer automatically translate into higher consumer spending. Signals from retail chains, logistics firms, and payment platforms indicated that while transaction volumes rose in December, average spend per customer declined, forcing companies to rethink how they measured success during the Christmas period.

Payment processors observed higher transaction counts alongside smaller basket sizes, particularly across food, fashion, and everyday consumer goods. Retailers reported that customers shopped more frequently but bought less per visit, prioritising essentials and discounted items over bulk purchases and premium products.

This shift followed a year of sustained inflation, rising operating costs, and weakened consumer purchasing power. Food inflation remained elevated through the second half of the year, transport costs increased, and electricity instability continued to push many businesses toward higher self-generation expenses. By December, households were spending more cautiously, even during what is traditionally the peak festive window.

For many businesses, Christmas 2025 became less about record-breaking revenue and more about retention, cash flow discipline, and inventory control.

Retail and FMCG brands faced volume without value

Supermarkets and neighbourhood retailers experienced what operators commonly described as “busy but thin” trading. Foot traffic increased across December, but margins tightened as consumers focused their spending on staples such as rice, cooking oil, beverages, and small household items, often opting for smaller pack sizes. Promotions and discounts played a larger role than in previous years, with several brands accepting lower margins to keep products moving.

Also Read: How Nigerians celebrated Christmas in 2025

Insights from payment platforms and retail operators showed that bulk festive shopping declined, especially in urban centres where cost-of-living pressures were most pronounced. Rather than once-off, high-value Christmas purchases, shoppers spread spending across multiple visits, keeping daily expenses predictable. For FMCG companies, this required faster stock turnover, tighter inventory planning, and more aggressive pricing strategies to avoid post-season stock build-up.

The result was a Christmas period that appeared active on the surface but delivered fewer breakout revenue moments for consumer brands.

Hospitality and entertainment benefited from experience-driven spending

While retail spending softened, hospitality and entertainment businesses recorded a more resilient performance. Restaurants, lounges, cinemas, and event venues reported steadier demand, particularly for mid-range offerings. Consumers who cut back on material purchases remained willing to pay for shared experiences, especially those linked to social connection and the end of the year.

Industry operators noted that customers were more selective, choosing fewer outings but spending deliberately when they did. This trend favoured businesses that offered clear value, flexible pricing, or bundled experiences over premium-only positioning. Events that balanced entertainment with affordability outperformed exclusive, high-cost options, reinforcing the shift toward experience-driven consumption.

For many businesses, Christmas 2025 reinforced an emerging reality: Nigerians may be spending less overall, but they remain willing to spend where value, enjoyment, and relevance clearly align.

Meiza Nigeria