Nigeria among regions most vulnerable as food insecurity threat grows
Rising fertiliser and transport costs threaten food production as 52.9 million people face acute food insecurity across West and Central Africa.
The World Bank has warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could deepen food insecurity across Nigeria and other countries in West and Central Africa, with an estimated 52.9 million people expected to face acute food and nutrition insecurity during the June to August 2026 lean season.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank said the conflict is driving up the cost of critical agricultural inputs, including fertilisers, fuel and freight, raising concerns about food production and affordability ahead of the 2026/2027 farming season.
The institution identified conflict-affected areas in the central Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin and northeastern Nigeria as some of the regions most at risk.
According to the report, disruptions to oil, gas and fertiliser supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz have triggered sharp increases in global fertiliser prices. Urea prices alone rose by 46 percent in a single month, while broader agricultural commodity prices increased by eight percent, heightening concerns about farmers’ ability to afford key inputs.
The World Bank projects that fertiliser prices will rise by an average of 31 percent this year, reaching their least affordable levels since 2022.
It noted that fertiliser markets have become increasingly volatile since the conflict intensified, with urea prices surging by more than 80 percent between February and April 2026. During the same period, diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP) fertilisers recorded increases of about 16 percent and 23 percent respectively.
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The report warned that higher fertiliser costs could reduce application rates among farmers, increase production expenses and place additional pressure on food supplies across countries that rely heavily on imported agricultural inputs.
Despite relatively favourable harvests and improved cereal supplies in parts of West and Central Africa, the World Bank said food and nutrition security conditions remain fragile.
The institution also highlighted worsening pastoral conditions across parts of the western and central Sahel, where shortages of pasture and water, bushfires and insecurity-related movement restrictions continue to affect livestock production.
Beyond West Africa, the report estimates that as many as 67 million people across East and Southern Africa will require food assistance due to a combination of conflict and climate-related shocks.
Recent market data cited by the bank show that agricultural and cereal price indices have continued to climb since March. Maize and wheat prices rose by five percent and 11 percent respectively, while rice prices declined by five percent.
Compared with a year earlier, wheat prices are now 19 percent higher and maize prices five percent higher, underscoring the continued pressure on global food markets.
The World Bank said the combination of conflict-driven supply disruptions, higher energy costs and uncertainty around global trade routes could create additional challenges for food-producing countries already grappling with inflation, insecurity and climate risks.
