Nigeria remains the African country with the largest number of people facing crisis-level or worse food insecurity, with an estimated 36.3 million people affected, according to the July 2026 Food Security Monitor published by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA).

The figure places Nigeria ahead of the other 16 African countries covered by the report, which tracks food insecurity, commodity prices, agricultural conditions and policy developments across the continent.

AGRA said Nigeria accounted for the highest absolute number of people classified under IPC/CH Phase 3 or worse, covering households experiencing crisis, emergency or catastrophic levels of food insecurity.

However, the size of Nigeria’s population means the picture looks different when measured as a share of the population. The 36.3 million people affected represent 16.7 percent of Nigeria’s population, significantly below the proportion recorded in countries such as South Sudan.

South Sudan had the highest proportion of its population facing crisis-level or worse food insecurity at 55 percent, affecting about 7.8 million people. Kenya followed with 4.1 million people, while Malawi and Mozambique recorded about four million and 3.5 million respectively.

The figures underline the scale of Nigeria’s food security challenge. While the country has a much larger population than most of the countries monitored, the number of people unable to consistently access adequate food remains substantial.

AGRA said the overall food insecurity situation across the countries monitored was largely unchanged from June, with most countries recording limited month-on-month movements.

In Nigeria, the pressure is being driven by several factors beyond the availability of food. Insecurity and displacement continue to disrupt farming activities and prevent some households from accessing farmland, while weak purchasing power makes it harder for families to afford available food.

Conflict-affected areas in Nigeria and other parts of West Africa continue to experience crisis and emergency food insecurity, with insecurity disrupting agricultural production, trade, livelihoods and humanitarian operations, the report said.

The situation is occurring despite some improvement in the prices of major staples in Nigeria.

Maize prices fell by 4.1 percent month on month in July, while rice prices declined marginally by 0.3 percent. The decline in maize prices is particularly notable given its importance to household consumption and livestock feed.

Also Read: Nigerians borrow more for homes as credit demand rises

AGRA attributed some of the recent increases to seasonal tightening of supplies.

The longer-term price picture is more favourable for several staples. Maize prices were 22.5 percent lower in July than a year

earlier, while millet and sorghum prices were down 13.6 percent and 9.2 percent respectively.

Milled rice was the notable exception, with prices still 8.3 percent higher than a year earlier despite the marginal decline recorded in July.

The contrasting figures point to an important part of Nigeria’s food security challenge: cheaper food does not necessarily mean that households can afford enough of it.

A fall in the price of maize, millet or sorghum can improve market conditions, but families whose incomes have been squeezed by higher living costs may still struggle to buy sufficient quantities. For households already facing displacement, loss of livelihoods or limited access to markets, lower commodity prices may provide only limited relief.

AGRA warned that the improvement in some food prices could also come under pressure from higher agricultural production costs.

The report said conditions across West Africa were generally favourable for the 2026/27 agricultural season, but rising fuel and fertiliser prices could increase the cost of farming and discourage farmers from using adequate inputs.

That could become a concern for Nigeria, where farmers are already dealing with high production and transportation costs, insecurity in some farming communities and the effects of changing weather patterns.

The food security picture therefore remains mixed. Some staple prices are below their levels a year ago, and agricultural conditions in parts of West Africa are relatively favourable. Yet millions of Nigerians remain unable to reliably access enough food.

For Nigeria, the challenge is increasingly not just producing more food, but ensuring that food reaches markets, remains affordable and that households have enough income to buy it.

The AGRA figures show that 36.3 million Nigerians are facing crisis-level or worse food insecurity, making the country’s food security challenge one of the largest on the continent even as some indicators begin to improve.

Meiza Nigeria