Nigeria risks food crisis in 2026 as costs, insecurity push farmers to the brink
Farmers warn of possible exit from food production as FAO flags worsening vulnerability
Nigeria’s attempts to steady food prices may collide with a deeper structural crisis as rising costs, insecurity, and severe post-harvest losses push many farmers to consider leaving agriculture ahead of the 2026 planting season.
Fresh concerns emerged after a Nairametrics report highlighted growing frustration among small and medium-scale farmers in Niger, Nasarawa, Kogi, and Kaduna states. According to the report, producers say the soaring cost of fertiliser, fuel, labour, and pesticides has made cultivation barely sustainable despite federal pressure to reduce food prices.
Farmers quoted by Nairametrics warned that the economics of farming have deteriorated so sharply that many may walk away next year. One rice farmer from Niger State said the price of essential inputs has tripled in the past two years, leaving many producers in debt and unable to recover their investment. Another farmer noted that insecurity and the absence of subsidies make government directives on lower food prices unrealistic.
Several of the farmers interviewed placed part of the blame on the collapse of earlier support schemes, including the Anchor Borrowers Programme. They said participation in farming surged when the scheme was active, but interest has faded as support dried up and access to credit weakened. Some also cited years of losses linked to poor market access, high logistics costs, and inadequate storage.
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Insecurity remains another major factor depressing output, with banditry, kidnapping, and herder-farmer conflict forcing many producers to abandon farmland entirely. Others now spend a sizeable part of their earnings on private security, eroding already thin profit margins.
Beyond the immediate economic pressures, global agencies are also raising red flags. The Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity between June and August 2026 if current trends continue. Its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis links the risk to persistent conflict in food-producing regions, economic shocks, and the growing influence of organised crime.
Agricultural economists say the warning signs are already visible in shrinking cultivation, falling yields, and a steady withdrawal of young people from farming. They argue that directives to reduce food prices could backfire without subsidies, rural infrastructure, mechanisation, and better access to credit. Some analysts warn that forcing price cuts in a high-cost environment could end up depressing output further and deepening shortages in 2026.
Inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 18.02 percent in September 2025, down from 20.12 percent in August. Food inflation also fell to 16.87 percent year-on-year. But experts caution that the improvement is concentrated in urban centres. In rural areas, where most of the country’s food is produced, many farmers are cutting back operations or preparing to exit the sector entirely.
As one farmer told Nairametrics, the sector cannot survive on promises alone. Without concrete support, he warned, next year’s harvest could be the smallest in decades.
