On paper, food in Nigeria should be getting cheaper. Imports have surged, warehouses are filled, and President Bola Tinubu has issued a directive to crash prices nationwide. But on the ground, farmers say the government’s approach is not just unrealistic, it is breaking local agriculture apart.

Nigeria’s agricultural import bill hit ₦2.22tn in the first half of 2025, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, a sharp 22.65 per cent increase from the same period in 2024. In the same window, President Tinubu directed a Federal Executive Council committee to “further crash” food prices, a policy the administration framed as a response to inflation pressures on households.

For the farmers and millers who are supposed to feed the country, this twin reality, of rising imports and political pronouncements, feels like a dangerous contradiction.

“The cost of food will go down if transport costs go down, but that alone is not enough,” said Kabir Ibrahim, National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN). “Our farmers are complaining that the prices are so low that they cannot buy fertiliser. The importation has dealt with our farmers.”

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The government’s order meets industry resistance

The Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, Sabi Abdullahi, told journalists in Abuja that Tinubu’s order would be enforced through measures ensuring “safe passage” of food products across the country.

“I can say it on good authority that the President has given a matching order to a Federal Executive Council committee already handling it,” Abdullahi explained. “If you know the amount of money being spent on transporting commodities, you can understand why those commodities are expensive at delivery. So, we are working very hard.”

But millers and private operators are unconvinced.

“The President is dealing with private organisations and companies. You don’t just come out and give an order to crash prices. It doesn’t work that way,” said Peter Dama, Chairman of the Competitive African Rice Forum. “At best, the government should have called stakeholders in the transport and agric sectors, discussed with them, and provided subsidies. Pronouncements without engagement will not work.”

For Dama, the heavy reliance on imports, compounded by the absence of proper subsidies, is driving farmers out of the sector. “If you don’t provide inputs and only make pronouncements, farmers will quit. We are not in an autocratic government. Stakeholders must be carried along.”

Mechanisation still stalled

Even the government’s flagship initiatives to boost mechanisation have faltered. In July 2024, Tinubu’s administration unveiled 2,000 tractors to support farmers. Over a year later, none have been distributed.

“Our farmers are growing impatient,” Ibrahim of AFAN said. “The tractors were launched in July, but no modalities have been given. We need them to support human labour with machine power.”

A Ministry of Agriculture official, who declined to be named, confirmed that distribution was awaiting presidential approval. “The minister has submitted a distribution list. We expect to flag it off soon, but people must understand such directives involve trade, finance, customs, and investment ministries.”

Purchasing power is still the bigger problem

Even if prices drop, farmers argue, weak purchasing power means consumers may not benefit.

“What we are telling the government is that it is the purchasing power of the Naira that is causing problems,” Ibrahim stressed. “Even if food prices fall, people don’t have the money to buy. That’s why you are not seeing any impact.”

This reality has been worsened by last year’s 180-day duty-free import window, which allowed millers and firms to import rice, maize, wheat, beans, and millet without duties or tariffs. The policy, which ended in December 2024, was designed as a stopgap against food inflation. Instead, it triggered a wave of importation that left local producers stranded.

Government silos are now reportedly filled with unsold stock, while private warehouses are struggling to offload grains purchased at higher prices. “Government itself is left with food in silos. They bought rice and paddies, but are they selling? Unless we fix systemic issues in customs, transport, and governance, we cannot get results,” Ibrahim added.

Local farmers squeezed out

The import glut has crashed farm-gate prices, leaving many farmers unable to break even. Maize, once sold at about ₦60,000 per tonne, now fetches closer to ₦30,000, according to AFAN.

“Our farmers are not happy; they are not even back to their farms now because maize prices have collapsed,” Ibrahim explained. “They cannot buy fertiliser, and the effect is adverse.”

Women farmers have been particularly hit. Chinasa Asonye, National Secretary of the Small-Scale Women Farmers Organisation in Nigeria, said input costs have skyrocketed while quality has deteriorated.

“Fertilisers and herbicides have become unaffordable. Some of the subsidised inputs distributed were expired and caused more harm than good. Government must subsidise inputs so farmers can produce at a reasonable cost,” she said.

Asonye also flagged hoarding as a growing issue. “Some people stored grains in silos expecting to sell when prices rise, but the reverse happened. Grains bought at ₦140 per kg now sell for ₦70, and many are running at a loss. Worse still, some imported rice sold at ₦48,000 has weevils and is not even edible.”

Way forward or backwards?

Stakeholders agree that piecemeal measures, duty-free waivers, presidential pronouncements, or delayed tractors cannot sustainably resolve Nigeria’s food crisis.

“Yes, reducing transport costs will bring some relief,” Dama conceded. “But the government must also engage rice millers, farmers, and private investors. Import licences should not replace real investment in local production. If we continue like this, we will never be food-secure.”

Asonye added a warning: “If farmers cannot break even, they will abandon production or resort to strike actions. That will deepen the food crisis.”

With agricultural imports hitting ₦2.22tn in six months, local farmers squeezed by input costs, and purchasing power in freefall, Nigeria’s food policy risks becoming a cycle of quick fixes that worsen long-term insecurity.

The government insists its price-crash directive, mechanisation drive, and import substitution efforts will eventually ease the burden. But for those on the farms and in the mills, patience is wearing thin.

Meiza Nigeria