Nigeria is entering a troubling phase where economic stabilisation efforts are beginning to show results in macroeconomic indicators, but household welfare continues to deteriorate. According to PwC, poverty levels in the country are expected to worsen significantly, with as many as 141 million Nigerians projected to be living below the poverty line by 2026, representing about 62 percent of the population.

The projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, titled Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth. The report highlights a growing disconnect between policy reforms designed to stabilise the economy and the everyday realities faced by households across the country. While inflation is expected to moderate gradually, PwC cautions that weaker real income growth and persistently high living costs mean millions of Nigerians are unlikely to feel any meaningful relief.

At the heart of the challenge is the erosion of purchasing power. Many Nigerians are earning roughly the same nominal incomes as they did before recent economic reforms, but those incomes now buy far less. Food, transport, housing, healthcare, and energy costs have risen sharply, and even when inflation slows, price levels rarely return to previous lows. For households already operating on narrow margins, this creates a lasting loss in real income.

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PwC notes that recent policy adjustments aimed at correcting long-standing imbalances in the economy have not yet translated into tangible welfare gains. Currency reforms, subsidy removals, and fiscal tightening have helped restore a degree of macroeconomic order, but their benefits remain largely abstract for ordinary Nigerians. In the short term, the impact has been higher household expenses without corresponding increases in income.

The firm estimates that Nigeria’s poverty rate will rise to 62 percent by 2026, reflecting the combined effects of sluggish income growth and lingering inflationary pressures. According to the report, most Nigerians are unlikely to see wage increases that meaningfully offset rising costs in the near term. As a result, households remain highly exposed to economic shocks, particularly those at the lower end of the income spectrum.

Low-income earners and workers in informal or low-productivity sectors are especially vulnerable. These groups typically have limited savings, restricted access to credit, and few buffers against disruptions. A single health emergency, job loss, or increase in transport costs can push households deeper into poverty with little room for recovery.

PwC also stresses that moderating inflation alone does not guarantee improved living standards. Even when inflation slows, high prices become embedded in the economy. Without strong job creation, productivity growth, and sustained wage expansion, households do not regain lost ground. Economic stability without income growth risks becoming a fragile equilibrium where survival replaces progress.

The outlook underscores a widening gap between macroeconomic performance and lived experience. While reforms may be stabilising fiscal and monetary conditions, weak consumer purchasing power continues to weigh on demand, business confidence, and household resilience. Poverty, in this context, extends beyond income thresholds to include declining access to nutrition, education, healthcare, and basic security.

Without growth that reaches household incomes, economic reforms risk stabilising indicators while living standards continue to slide. For millions of Nigerians, the question is no longer whether the economy is improving on paper, but whether that improvement will translate into conditions they can actually feel in their daily lives.

Meiza Nigeria