Nigeria’s hunger outlook improves, but nearly 17 million people still need food support
Latest FEWS NET projections point to fewer Nigerians facing acute hunger by early 2027, although conflict, inflation and insecurity continue to threaten food security.
Nigeria’s food security outlook is expected to improve over the coming months, with the number of people facing acute hunger outlook projected to fall from more than 20 million currently to about 17 million by January 2027. Even so, the country will remain among the world’s most food-insecure nations, highlighting the scale of the challenge facing Africa’s largest economy.
According to the latest Food Assistance Outlook Brief by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), between 16 million and 16.99 million Nigerians are expected to require urgent food assistance by January 2027. While that represents a significant improvement from the current estimate of 20 million to 20.99 million people, the projected figure remains higher than both last year’s level and Nigeria’s five-year average.
The expected improvement is largely linked to the country’s main harvest, which is due to be completed in December and is expected to increase food availability in many parts of the country. However, FEWS NET warns that the harvest alone will not solve Nigeria’s food security challenges.
The report says conflict across northern Nigeria continues to disrupt farming activities, restrict household incomes and prevent many families from cultivating their land. At the same time, inflation and supply disruptions are expected to keep staple food prices elevated even after harvest season.
“Despite the completion of the main harvest in December, staple food prices are expected to remain high as production and supply disruptions coincide with high market reliance among conflict-affected households who are unable to cultivate,” the report noted.
Communities in parts of the North East affected by prolonged insecurity are expected to remain in the “Emergency” phase of food insecurity, the second highest level before famine under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system.
Also Read: High food prices still threaten Nigerians despite slower inflation – CPPE
At that stage, households experience severe food shortages, high levels of malnutrition and are often forced to sell productive assets such as livestock or farmland simply to survive.
Although Nigeria’s projected figures show improvement compared with the middle of 2026, the country remains one of the largest contributors to global hunger.
FEWS NET ranks Nigeria among just four countries expected to account for more than 10 percent of the estimated 145 million to 155 million people who will require food assistance across the 30 countries monitored by the organisation by January 2027. The others are Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Nigeria is projected to rank fourth globally in the number of people needing food support by early 2027, behind Sudan, Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The report identifies conflict, economic hardship and adverse weather conditions as the principal drivers of Nigeria’s food insecurity, reflecting many of the pressures that have affected agricultural production over the past few years.
For policymakers, the latest projections offer cautious optimism rather than a reason for celebration.
A successful harvest could provide temporary relief for millions of households, but experts note that lasting improvements will depend on restoring security in farming communities, improving agricultural productivity, stabilising food prices and strengthening household incomes.
Without sustained progress in those areas, seasonal harvest gains may continue to provide only temporary reductions in hunger before food insecurity rises again.
