Nigeria’s inflation rate picture continued to soften in November, but fresh data shows that price pressures remain uneven beneath the surface, particularly across food items and rural communities. 

The latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that headline inflation eased to 14.45 percent year on year in November 2025, down from 16.05 percent in October. The moderation comes under the new inflation base year of 2024, which has reshaped how price movements are measured across the economy.

According to the data, the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 points in November from 128.9 points in October, reflecting a 1.6 point increase within the month. Despite the slower annual inflation reading, prices continued to rise faster on a month-to-month basis, with headline inflation climbing to 1.22 percent in November compared with 0.93 percent in October.

The statistical agency said the sharp drop in the year-on-year inflation rate largely reflects the rebasing exercise, noting that November 2025 inflation was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 percent recorded in November 2024. The average inflation rate for the 12 months ending November 2025 stood at 20.41 percent, significantly lower than the 32.77 percent recorded over the same period a year earlier.

Food and non alcoholic beverages remained the biggest driver of inflation, contributing 5.78 percentage points to the headline rate. This was followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.87 percentage points, transport at 1.54 percentage points, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 1.22 percentage points. Education and health services contributed 0.90 and 0.88 percentage points, respectively.

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On a monthly basis, food inflation also led to price increases, contributing 0.49 percentage points, while restaurants and accommodation services and transport added 0.16 and 0.13 percentage points, respectively. The NBS noted that food prices rose during the month despite the improvement in annual figures, driven by higher prices of items such as dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, eggs, crayfish, egusi, ground pepper and fresh onions.

Urban inflation eased sharply to 13.61 percent year on year in November, down from 37.10 percent recorded in the same month of 2024. Month on month urban inflation slowed to 0.95 percent, while the 12-month average stood at 20.80 percent.

Rural inflation, however, remained higher at 15.15 percent year on year, although still lower than the 32.27 percent recorded in November 2024. Month on month, rural inflation rose sharply to 1.88 percent from 0.45 percent in October, pointing to stronger price pressures outside major cities.

Food inflation moderated on an annual basis to 11.08 percent in November, down from 39.93 percent a year earlier. However, month-on-month food inflation rose to 1.13 percent from a contraction of 0.37 percent in October, signalling renewed cost pressures for households.

Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, stood at 18.04 percent year on year, compared with 28.75 percent in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation eased slightly to 1.28 percent, while the 12-month average fell to 20.76 percent.

At the state level, Rivers recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 17.78 percent, followed by Ogun at 17.65 percent and Ekiti at 16.77 percent. Plateau recorded the lowest at 9.13 percent, alongside Kebbi at 10.32 percent and Katsina at 10.60 percent.

The NBS cautioned that inflation figures across states should be interpreted carefully, noting that differences in consumption patterns and CPI weights can make direct comparisons misleading.

While the headline inflation slowdown signals some relief, the data show that cost pressures remain active, especially in food prices and rural markets, highlighting the gap between statistical easing and everyday consumer experience.

Meiza Nigeria