Nigeria’s poverty hits 63% despite easing inflation — World Bank
Rising living costs and weak income growth leave millions worse off despite declining price pressures.
Poverty in Nigeria rose to 63 percent in 2025, despite a sharp slowdown in inflation, highlighting how recent macroeconomic gains have yet to translate into real relief for households, the World Bank has said.
The figure marks a steady increase from 56 percent in 2023 and 61 percent in 2024, pushing the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line to an estimated 140 million.
The data, contained in the World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” points to a growing disconnect between easing price pressures and actual living conditions.
While inflation has declined significantly, the impact of earlier price spikes continues to weigh heavily on households. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation fell from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 15.15 percent in December 2025, while food inflation dropped from 39.84 percent to 10.84 percent over the same period.
Despite this moderation, the World Bank said household incomes have not kept pace, leaving many Nigerians worse off in real terms. “Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the report stated.
The bank explained that the persistence of poverty reflects the cumulative effect of earlier inflation shocks, which had already eroded purchasing power before prices began to ease.
It also pointed to global pressures, including the Middle East conflict, which have continued to drive up energy, transport, and food costs, further straining low-income households that spend a significant share of their income on basic needs.
Beyond inflation, the structure of Nigeria’s economic growth has limited its impact on poverty reduction. The report noted that growth has been driven largely by services and industry, while agriculture, which employs more than half of the poor, has lagged behind.
“Growth in the agriculture sector, where more than half of the poor work, has lagged services and industry, constraining the pace of poverty reduction,” the World Bank said.
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Despite the rise in poverty, the bank projected a gradual decline from 2026 as inflation continues to ease and macroeconomic conditions stabilise, with the poverty rate expected to fall to about 59 percent by 2028.
However, it warned that the pace of improvement would remain slow due to structural challenges such as weak job creation, low agricultural productivity, and persistent inequality.
Speaking at the report’s launch in Abuja, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, Fiseha Haile, said inflation, although declining, still poses a risk to real incomes and poverty reduction.
He stressed that reducing inflation sustainably, alongside promoting inclusive growth, is critical to ensuring that Nigerians begin to feel the benefits of ongoing economic reforms.
Also speaking, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, said the government is focused on investment-driven growth and expanding social safety nets to support vulnerable populations.
He noted that targeted interventions, including direct benefit transfers delivered through digital platforms linked to national identity systems, are being strengthened to cushion the impact of high living costs.
Edun added that lifting Nigerians out of poverty “by the millions” remains the central goal of ongoing reforms, but acknowledged that macroeconomic stability alone would not be sufficient without stronger job creation and sustained investment.
