Nigeria’s power output slumps as plants run at just 38% capacity
NERC data show over half of installed generation was unavailable in December despite service-based tariffs and sector reforms.
Nigeria’s power supply came under renewed strain in December 2025 as most power plants connected to the national grid ran well below their installed capacity, leaving a large share of generation unavailable despite years of reforms and investment in the sector.
Figures from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission show that only 5,151 megawatts of the country’s 13,625 megawatts installed capacity was available for dispatch during the month. In practical terms, more than half of Nigeria’s potential power output was lost before electricity could even reach the grid, with plant availability standing at just 38 percent.
The data once again highlight a familiar problem in the power sector. Nigeria has built power plants, but keeping them running consistently remains a challenge. This gap is becoming harder to ignore as the country moves further into a service-based tariff regime, where consumers are billed based on promised hours of supply rather than estimates.
While average hourly generation stood at 4,367 megawatt hours, the available power was largely utilised, reflected in a load factor of 85 percent. This points to a system constrained more by operational limitations than by demand, with generation falling short because plants could not deliver, not because electricity was not needed.
Nigeria’s power production was also concentrated in a small number of stations. The 10 largest plants accounted for 81 percent of total electricity generated in December, leaving the system exposed to disruptions whenever one or two major facilities underperform.
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Hydropower stations offered some stability. Zungeru, Kainji and Jebba posted relatively strong results, with Zungeru operating at full availability and generating at an 83 percent load factor. Thermal plants told a different story. Many struggled with gas supply shortages, delayed maintenance and long-standing operational issues, resulting in output far below capacity.
Several plants recorded single-digit availability, while others, including Alaoji One, Ibom Power One and Trans Amadi One, produced little or no electricity throughout the month. These outages had a noticeable impact on national supply, particularly during periods of high demand.
Problems were not limited to generation. Grid instability further reduced usable power. Average voltage levels moved outside approved limits, with the lower voltage averaging 302.84 kilovolts, below the minimum benchmark of 313.50 kilovolts, while the upper voltage reached 347.52 kilovolts, above the maximum threshold of 346.50 kilovolts.
Frequency control was also weak. The grid recorded an average low frequency of 49.14 hertz and a high of 50.63 hertz, both outside the approved band of 49.75 to 50.25 hertz. Such conditions increase the risk of system disturbances and often force operators to cut back generation to protect infrastructure.
December’s performance underlines the limits of reforms that focus mainly on expanding installed capacity. Despite significant additions over the past decade, persistent bottlenecks in gas supply, transmission, distribution and system operations continue to prevent those assets from translating into reliable electricity.
This remains the case even with major interventions such as the 2.3 billion dollar Siemens-backed Presidential Power Initiative. Weak payment discipline, outstanding sector debts exceeding 4 trillion naira and poor contract enforcement have reduced incentives for maintenance and efficiency improvements across the value chain.
For consumers, Nigeria’s power supply remains unreliable even as tariffs increasingly reflect promised service levels. For investors, low availability rates and grid instability raise risks and weaken confidence in the market.
