Nigeria’s cities are on course for a massive urban population surge that will reshape the country’s economy, housing needs and infrastructure demands over the next three decades. By 2050, the country’s urban population is projected to hit about 264 million, according to new World Bank estimates, putting Nigerian cities at the centre of future growth and policy pressure.

The projection means that more than 140 million additional people are expected to move into urban areas over the next 25 years, more than double the current size of the country’s urban population. This rapid shift is expected to push about 70 percent of Nigerians into cities by mid-century, compared with just under half today.

The World Bank, in its report titled Multi-sector analytical review and pathway to transformation, noted that Nigeria’s urban growth has been dramatic over the past 6 decades. Urban population figures rose from fewer than seven million people in 1960 to more than 128 million by 2024. Nearly half of those city residents currently live in slums, highlighting the scale of the housing and infrastructure gap facing urban centres.

While the report describes urbanisation as a major opportunity for productivity, innovation and job creation, it also warns that weak planning could turn population growth into an economic burden. Unplanned expansion, infrastructure shortages and widening service gaps already strain many cities, with population growth outpacing investments in transport, housing, water and sanitation.

The study draws on rapid assessments of 11 major cities, along with detailed reviews of Lagos, Kano, Ibadan, Abuja and Maiduguri. It also includes consultations with policymakers, private sector players and development partners. Based on these findings, the World Bank outlined a roadmap aimed at making Nigerian cities more livable, inclusive and resilient as they absorb millions of new residents.

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Urbanisation trends are unfolding alongside signs of economic recovery. The World Bank projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026 and maintain the same pace in 2027, following an estimated expansion of 4.2 per cent in 2025. This outlook places Africa’s largest economy among the faster-growing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa at a time when global growth is expected to slow to 2.6 percent.

According to the report, the improved outlook is being driven by macroeconomic reforms, strong performance in the services sector and Nigeria’s transition into a net exporter of refined petroleum products. Finance, information and communication technology and modest gains in agricultural productivity were identified as key drivers of the ongoing recovery.

The report also pointed to recent policy measures, including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and tighter monetary policy, as steps that helped stabilise the economy after years of structural imbalances. Although inflation remains high, the World Bank expects a gradual easing as the effects of monetary tightening filter through the system, supported by global disinflation and lower energy prices.

However, risks remain. The World Bank cautioned that Nigeria’s economy is still vulnerable to swings in the global oil market. Crude oil prices are projected to fall from an average of US$69 per barrel in 2025 to about US$60 per barrel in 2026, before a mild recovery in 2027. With oil revenues still critical to government finances and foreign exchange earnings, prolonged price weakness could limit fiscal space at a time when cities require heavy investment.

As Nigeria’s urban population accelerates, the report stressed that the country’s economic future will increasingly depend on how well its cities are planned, financed and governed. Without coordinated action, rapid urban growth could deepen inequality and strain public services. With the right policies, however, Nigeria’s cities could become engines of inclusive growth for decades to come.

Meiza Nigeria