For the second time this month in a row, Nigeria’s headline inflation dipped; that is, on paper, so it seems. According to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation in May eased to 22.97 per cent, down from 23.71 per cent in April.

It is a technical win for policymakers grappling with economic reforms, currency instability, and soaring living costs. But, for millions of Nigerians, the gap between macro improvements and markets realities remains wide.

Numbers are down, but prices remain high

May’s dip continues a trend that began earlier in the year after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the consumer price index (CPI), shifting the base year from 2009 to 2024.This adjustment recalibrated inflation figures, reducing the headline rates from a record 34.8 per cent in December 2024, to a more moderated level. However, inflation slowing down does not mean prices are falling, it only means the prices are increasing at a slower rate.

Food inflation, arguably the most critical pressure point for households, also increased slightly, from 21.26 per cent in April to 21.14 per cent in May. While the drop is statically notable, it remains far from relief. Basic commodities like yam, eggs, and garri remain significantly more expensive than they were even six months ago.

Lagging effect and persistent pressure

Despite the improved figures, the impact has yet to trickle down into average Nigerian’s shopping cart. The cost of transportation, housing, and school fees remain high… Street vendors, traders, and small scale farmers continue to operate within a climate of squeezed margins and unpredictability in prices.

This disconnect between (improving) national statistics and street level experience is not new, but it has grown more pronounced since fuel subsidies were removed, the naira floated and electricity tariffs for a so-called Band group of customers was hiked by a factor of 5x. The resultant inflation spike in mid-2023 destabilised many households, and even now the recovery is very fragile.

The central Bank of Nigeria has held interest rates steady for the second consecutive time, and while previous aggressive rate hikes helped moderate inflation, they also restrict access to credit, slowed small business growth, and raised borrowing costs. By pausing, the CBN is walking a tightrope trying to manage inflation without chocking economic momentum.

At the same time, fiscal policies have yet to produce significant changes in cost of living. Structural reforms around agricultural investment, food distribution, and manufacturing have lagged behind, leaving inflation vulnerable to shock in oil prices, currency movements, and insecurity in food producing regions, like the recent killing of more than 200 people in Benue State, regarded as the food basket of the country.

Also Read: Why Nigeria’s latest 24.48percent inflation rate feels outside the reality households live

What this means moving forward

The latest release from the National Bureau of Statistics provides a glimmer of hope that Nigeria’s inflation crisis may have hit its peak. But they do not yet show signs of recovery. Without improvement in food availability, transport systems, and energy costs, inflation will remain a burden on the average citizen.

Anita Chinedu