Food prices across Nigeria showed early signs of relief in January as prices of key staples eased in several markets, offering households a modest breather after months of sustained pressure. The improvement, however, remains uneven, with rising costs of cooking oils and processed foods continuing to stretch family budgets.

Market checks across multiple regions indicate that increased harvest volumes and improved supply flows have begun to reflect in lower prices for grains such as rice, beans, garri and sorghum. Traders and analysts say the moderation is largely seasonal, supported by higher domestic output and government policy signals that reduced speculative hoarding toward the end of last year.

In Abuja and the surrounding parts of the North-Central region, the most visible changes were recorded in rice and beans. Prices of locally milled rice declined sharply compared with December levels, reflecting increased availability from producing areas. Imported rice also softened, although it remained more expensive than local alternatives. Beans prices eased as well, though traders noted continued volatility depending on variety and source.

Despite the gains, households did not experience uniform relief. Cooking oils moved in the opposite direction, with both groundnut oil and palm oil recording noticeable increases at wholesale and retail levels. Traders attributed the rise to higher processing costs, energy expenses and transport charges, factors that remain sensitive to fuel prices and exchange rate pressures.

Processed foods also offered limited comfort. Items such as pasta continued to climb, reinforcing the reality that while raw staples may be easing, the broader food basket remains under strain.

In the South-East, the tone was more stable, supported by peak harvest activity and strong output from local farming communities. Markets in Ebonyi State reflected sharp year-on-year declines in several varieties of beans, while rice prices held steady at lower levels than those seen during last year’s lean season. Garri prices dropped significantly compared with previous highs, and yam prices softened as supplies improved.

Northern markets also recorded broad moderation. In Kano, traders pointed to improved harvests and better supply flows as key drivers behind declining prices of rice, beans, garri, millet and sorghum. The easing followed months of elevated prices driven by scarcity, insecurity along transport routes and speculative buying. While the current trend is positive, traders warned that fuel costs and logistics challenges could still disrupt stability in the coming months.

In contrast, markets in the South-West, particularly Lagos, continued to reflect mixed signals. While rice prices showed some moderation, beans, onions, peppers and vegetable cooking oils remained expensive. Traders cited high demand, transportation costs and market concentration as reasons prices have been slower to adjust downward in major urban centres.

The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has linked the easing trend to higher output across several staple crops. According to the ministry, increased planting, better access to inputs and policy reforms since 2023 have improved domestic supply of maize, rice, wheat and cassava.

Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, said the combined impact of reforms, mechanisation and market-focused interventions is repositioning agriculture as a scalable business capable of stabilising food supply and prices over time.

Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi, also attributed recent price adjustments to increased production under the National Agricultural Growth Scheme Agro Pocket initiative. He said larger volumes entering markets during the harvest cycle have shifted conditions from scarcity toward relative abundance.

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Government policy signalling played a role as well. Announcements of a temporary import window last year encouraged traders to release stored grains, easing supply tightness even as officials maintained that imported stocks were not released into the market.

Input support further lowered production costs for farmers. Fertiliser distribution and subsidised inputs at both federal and state levels allowed producers to scale output more competitively this season. Mechanisation partnerships have also begun to reduce land preparation costs and improve yields through shared service centres.

Still, analysts caution that the current moderation remains fragile. Rising costs of cooking oils and processed foods highlight structural challenges tied to energy prices, processing capacity and logistics. Inflationary pressures, security concerns and transport bottlenecks continue to pose risks to sustained price stability.

While January data suggest easing pressure on core staples, the uneven nature of the relief means many households are yet to feel a meaningful reduction in overall food spending. For now, the gains remain tentative, offering cautious optimism rather than full reprieve.

Meiza Nigeria