Nigerian farmers could face reduced harvests and higher production costs as the developing El Niño weather phenomenon threatens to disrupt rainfall across parts of West Africa, adding to existing pressures from expensive fertiliser and energy.

The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) raised the concern in its report, Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile, unveiled on Monday at the opening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, in Antalya, Türkiye.

The report identified a potential agricultural drought corridor extending from Senegal through Nigeria to Ethiopia and Sudan. It warned that rainfall suppression during major El Niño events had previously produced deficits of 20 to 35 percent across parts of the Sahel, with corresponding yield reductions of 15 to 30 percent for rain-fed staples such as maize, millet and sorghum.

Although IFAD described its forecast for the West Africa-Sahel corridor as lower-confidence, the possibility raises concerns for Nigeria, where millions of households depend on seasonal rainfall for agricultural production.

The threat is emerging at a difficult time for farmers already dealing with rising input costs. Higher energy and fertiliser prices are making cultivation more expensive, while unfavourable weather could leave farmers spending more to produce less.

IFAD warned that small-scale producers were facing the combined pressure of energy and fertiliser price increases, existing drought conditions and the possibility of a particularly strong El Niño within a single planting season.

The organisation also estimated that the 2026/2027 climate event could cost the global economy as much as US$11tn over the next five to six years. The projected losses include agricultural damage, infrastructure costs and wider economic disruptions arising from higher food and commodity prices, weaker demand and interruptions to international trade.

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El Niño occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, affecting atmospheric circulation and changing rainfall and temperature patterns across different regions. While some areas experience increased rainfall, others face a greater risk of drought.

According to the report, the developing event is expected to reach its peak between October 2026 and January 2027. Its effects on agricultural output and rural livelihoods could, however, continue beyond the 2027 harvest.

For Nigeria, weaker production of major staples could place additional pressure on food availability and prices, particularly if farmers struggle to recover their cultivation expenses. Food processors, traders and businesses that depend on local agricultural supplies could also face higher costs if harvest volumes decline.

The expected rise in temperatures could create further pressure on the country’s electricity supply. Greater demand for fans, air conditioners and other cooling equipment could increase consumption at a time when the power sector continues to contend with generation and transmission constraints.

Lower rainfall could also affect water availability for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. Although Nigeria relies heavily on gas-fired electricity plants, reduced water levels at hydropower facilities could further constrain available supply.

The combination of higher temperatures, possible rainfall deficits and rising agricultural costs presents a difficult outlook for small-scale farmers, many of whom have limited financial resources to absorb production losses.

IFAD’s warning highlights the vulnerability of food systems to overlapping economic and climate pressures, particularly in regions where agricultural production depends heavily on rainfall. For Nigeria, the concern is not only whether the coming season will deliver enough rain, but whether farmers can afford to produce enough food if weather conditions become less favourable.

Meiza Nigeria