Nigeria has once again failed to meet its crude oil production target set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, despite recording a modest increase in output in April.

Fresh figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that the country produced an average of 1.49 million barrels of crude oil per day in April, slightly below the 1.5 million barrels-per-day quota allocated to Nigeria by OPEC.

According to the data, Nigeria recorded an average daily crude production of 1,488,540 barrels during the month. When condensates were added, total oil production rose to about 1.66 million barrels per day.

The latest figures mean Nigeria has now failed to meet its OPEC quota for nine consecutive months since July 2025, despite repeated government assurances that oil output was improving.

The development also comes weeks after the NUPRC stated that Nigeria’s oil production had climbed to around 1.8 million barrels per day, creating fresh questions around the country’s actual production levels.

Although April’s output represented an improvement compared to previous months, it still fell short of the country’s OPEC target.

Data released earlier by the commission showed that Nigeria produced about 1.38 million barrels per day in March, up from 1.31 million barrels per day recorded in February after months of declining output.

The country had also struggled with weaker production figures towards the end of 2025. NUPRC figures showed production dropped from 1.436 million barrels per day in November 2025 to 1.422 million barrels in December before recovering slightly in January.

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In 2025 alone, Nigeria met or slightly exceeded its OPEC quota in only three months — January, June and July.

Nigeria had opened the year strongly, producing around 1.54 million barrels per day in January, slightly above its OPEC allocation. However, output later weakened, with February and March recording some of the widest shortfalls during the year.

The continued struggle to meet production targets highlights the long-standing problems affecting Nigeria’s oil sector. Crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and underinvestment in the upstream sector have continued to limit output despite government efforts to increase production.

According to the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, Nigeria loses billions of dollars annually through crude theft and operational losses across oil-producing regions. Industry experts have also repeatedly warned that insecurity around oil facilities and pipeline infrastructure continues to discourage investment in some onshore assets.

Energy analyst Kelvin Emmanuel previously noted that improving production levels would depend heavily on infrastructure stability, stronger security and increased investor confidence in the sector.

The production shortfall remains significant for Nigeria’s economy, which still relies heavily on crude oil exports for foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.

Lower output levels could also affect government revenue projections at a time when the country is dealing with inflationary pressure, exchange rate volatility and rising debt obligations. Despite the challenges, Nigeria still holds some of Africa’s largest crude oil reserves. OPEC estimates place the country’s proven reserves at about 37 billion barrels.

The Federal Government has repeatedly expressed optimism that recent reforms, anti-theft operations and industry investments will help increase production levels, but the latest figures suggest the country is still struggling to sustain output above its OPEC benchmark.

Meiza Nigeria