Nigeria began 2026 with a surprisingly strong trade performance as the country’s merchandise trade surplus surged to ₦7.55 trillion in the first quarter, its highest level in recent quarters.

The sharp increase was not driven by a dramatic transformation of the economy or a sudden export boom across multiple sectors. Instead, it reflected a familiar pattern in Nigeria’s trade story: strong earnings from oil exports combined with a significant decline in imports.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that total exports reached ₦21.17 trillion between January and March, while imports fell to ₦13.62 trillion. The result was a trade surplus that was more than four times higher than the previous quarter.

On the surface, the numbers suggest a strengthening external sector. Nigeria sold more goods to the rest of the world than it bought, improving its trade position and potentially easing pressure on foreign exchange earnings.

A closer look at the figures, however, reveals that the country’s trade fortunes remain closely tied to the performance of its oil industry.

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Crude oil alone generated ₦11.20 trillion during the quarter, accounting for more than half of all exports. When other petroleum-related exports are included, oil overwhelmingly dominated Nigeria’s export earnings.

While exports increased overall, one of the most notable developments was the performance of petroleum product exports, which climbed to ₦6.78 trillion. The increase reflects growing activity in the downstream sector and highlights the continuing importance of energy products to Nigeria’s trade profile.

The figures also show signs of progress beyond crude oil. Non-crude exports contributed ₦9.97 trillion during the quarter, while non-oil exports stood at ₦3.19 trillion. Yet these gains were not enough to significantly alter the structure of Nigeria’s export economy.

Mineral products still accounted for nearly 86 percent of total exports, underscoring how dependent the country remains on commodities despite years of efforts to diversify export earnings.

If exports tell one side of the story, imports tell the other.

Nigeria’s import bill declined sharply to ₦13.62 trillion, down from ₦17.25 trillion in the previous quarter. The reduction played a major role in widening the trade surplus and suggests lower spending on foreign goods, particularly petroleum products.

However, the composition of imports highlights areas where the economy continues to depend heavily on external suppliers.

Machinery and transport equipment remained the largest import category, accounting for more than ₦5.01 trillion. The country also spent billions importing fuel products, wheat, telecommunications equipment and vehicles.

China retained its position as Nigeria’s largest source of imports, supplying more than one-third of all goods brought into the country during the quarter. The trade data also paints a mixed picture across sectors.

Agricultural exports fell by more than 31 percent compared to the same period last year, raising concerns about the performance of a sector often identified as a key pillar of diversification. Cocoa remained the country’s leading agricultural export, but overall export earnings from agriculture weakened significantly.

On the other hand, exports of raw materials and solid minerals recorded strong growth, suggesting that demand for Nigeria’s extractive resources remains robust beyond the oil sector.

Regionally, Nigeria continued to maintain a strong trade advantage across Africa. Exports to African countries far exceeded imports, reinforcing the country’s role as one of the continent’s largest trading economies.

The latest figures offer policymakers some encouraging news. A stronger trade surplus improves external balances and supports foreign exchange inflows. Yet the data also highlights a challenge that has persisted for decades.

Nigeria is exporting more than it imports, but much of that success still depends on oil and mineral products. Until manufacturing, agriculture and value-added industries contribute a larger share of export earnings, the country’s trade performance will remain vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity markets.

Meiza Nigeria