The Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN) says major deepwater projects expected to begin drilling this year could add as much as 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Nigeria’s crude oil production within the next three to five years, potentially providing a significant boost to the country’s push to reach three million bpd by 2030.

PETAN President, Wole Ogunsanya, disclosed this at the Energy Leaders’ Summit organised by The Energy Year in Lagos, where he also projected that Nigeria could soon have close to 2 million bpd of refining capacity while retaining the ability to export about 1.5 million bpd under its OPEC quota.

Ogunsanya said the 3 million bpd production target was ambitious but achievable, given renewed activity across Nigeria’s deepwater, land and swamp assets.

“There is a lot of FID in the deepwater; there is a bunch of fields that are being awarded on land and swamp,” he said.

According to him, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies and Chevron are among the international oil companies expected to commence deepwater drilling before the end of the year, with the projects potentially delivering about 350,000 bpd initially and as much as 500,000 bpd over the next three to five years.

“These are deep-water projects. Most major companies I’ve mentioned- those deepwater projects- at least three of them are starting this year. It will take two to three years. We’re expecting about 350,000 barrels from those projects, even more. I think it will be as much as half a million barrels of oil in the next three to five years from those projects,” he said.

But while new projects could add significant volumes, Ogunsanya said Nigeria’s ability to meet its production ambitions would also depend on whether operators holding existing assets have the technical and financial capacity to develop them.

He criticised the award of some high-potential assets to companies that, in his assessment, lack the expertise and resources required to maximise production.

“We have a bunch of assets awarded to companies that do not have the expertise to handle those assets. People raise money; they don’t have what it takes to do it,” he said.

Ogunsanya urged regulators and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to ensure that assets that are not being adequately developed are transferred to operators with the technical and financial capacity to do so.

“We are going to rely on NNPCL and regulators. Policies are coming up now. If you cannot produce the asset, they are going to take it from you,” he said.

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“If the regulators are serious about increasing this production, it’s to ensure that the assets will be handed over to the people who have the capacity to do them.”

He said the same principle should guide future licensing rounds, arguing that increasing national production would require assets to be placed in the hands of operators capable of developing them.

Ogunsanya also pointed to shallow-water assets as another opportunity for production growth, citing Seplat Energy and Renaissance Africa Energy. He said Seplat’s acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian shallow-water assets could create room for higher output, particularly given the company’s access to funding through its London listing.

“That asset was producing at a time over 300,000 barrels under ExxonMobil. I think they tried to push about 200,000 barrels a day,” he said.

On refining, Ogunsanya said the growth in domestic refining capacity would create additional demand for crude and make higher upstream production increasingly important.

Earlier this year, he said Nigeria was approaching one million bpd of active refining capacity, with another 500,000 bpd of capacity idle, underscoring the need to increase crude supply alongside refinery development.

At the Lagos summit, he projected that refining capacity could eventually approach two million bpd, while Nigeria could still retain about 1.5 million bpd for export within its OPEC quota.

He also called for more investment in gas infrastructure, particularly pipelines, and greater development of non-associated gas.

“In the gas space, we need to find ways to improve our infrastructure. We have issues with pipelines, essentially. And of course, we have to encourage these oil companies to drill those non-associated gas,” he said.

Ogunsanya proposed linking gas production to oil production by requiring operators to produce a specified volume of gas alongside every barrel of crude.

Meanwhile, Technical Director at Navante Oil and Gas, Emeka Onwuechi, called for stronger collaboration between Nigerian energy producers and indigenous oilfield service companies, arguing that the country still relies on foreign service centres for some critical equipment.

Onwuechi said there was a need for greater confidence in Nigerian oilfield service companies and the capabilities they can provide to the industry.

He also said Nigeria currently lacks sufficient in-country capacity to manufacture critical oilfield equipment such as Christmas trees.

The comments come as industry stakeholders continue to push for increased investment, technical capacity and infrastructure to support the Federal Government’s 3 million bpd production ambition. At the same summit, industry participants identified funding constraints, pipeline infrastructure and technical capacity as key issues that could affect efforts to raise production.

Meiza Nigeria