Inflation rebounds as global supply shock squeezes Nigerian households
After months of easing, price pressures are rising again as global oil disruption filters into transport and household costs
Nigeria’s inflation slowdown has hit a fresh setback, with the latest data showing that rising global supply disruptions are beginning to feed directly into the cost of living.
Headline inflation rose to 15.38 percent in March 2026, up from 15.06 percent in February, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The increase marks the first uptick after 11 straight months of moderation and signals renewed pressure on households and businesses.
The latest rise comes against the backdrop of disruptions in the global oil market triggered by the ongoing Israel–United States–Iran conflict. Before the war escalated in late February, crude oil prices hovered around US$70 per barrel. By March, concerns over shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz had pushed prices close to US$120 per barrel, sharply increasing energy costs worldwide.
For Nigeria, the impact is already visible.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation accelerated to 4.18 percent in March, significantly higher than 2.01 percent in February, indicating that prices are rising faster now than they were just a month earlier.
Food prices remain a major pressure point. Food inflation came in at 14.31 percent year-on-year, while monthly food inflation stood at 4.17 percent. Key drivers included price increases in staples such as yams, fresh ginger, cassava tubers, groundnuts, Irish potatoes and ogbono.
Also Read: Nigeria’s poverty hits 63% despite easing inflation — World Bank
The wider business implication is energy.
Higher crude prices have filtered into domestic fuel costs, which in turn are increasing the cost of transporting goods across the country. That pressure is now being passed on from logistics operators to traders, manufacturers and ultimately consumers.
At markets in Lagos, traders and drivers told Reuters that transport costs are already squeezing margins and pushing up produce prices.
State-level data also shows how unevenly the pressure is spreading. Bayelsa recorded the highest inflation rate at 27.37 percent, followed by Sokoto at 26.03 percent and Bauchi at 23.67 percent. On the other hand, Osun, Kano and Kaduna posted the slowest annual increases.
Reacting to the figures, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, warned that the latest numbers point to a fragile recovery.
He said the figures reflect a “worrying resurgence of inflationary pressures,” particularly as energy costs continue to ripple through production, distribution and transportation.
For businesses, this is more than a macroeconomic statistic.
Rising inflation means weaker consumer spending power, thinner margins, higher operating costs and renewed uncertainty for pricing decisions. For households, it deepens cost-of-living pressures at a time when real incomes remain under strain.
The latest data suggests that while inflation had been easing, global shocks can still quickly reverse domestic gains.
And once fuel costs move, the rest of the economy rarely stays still.
