World Bank: Reforms yet to lift most Nigerians out of poverty
New report says economic reforms have improved stability, but millions are still struggling as job creation and social protection lag behind
Nearly three years after the Federal Government introduced sweeping economic reforms, the World Bank says most Nigerians have yet to feel their benefits, warning that poverty remains widespread despite signs of macroeconomic recovery.
In its newly approved Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria (2026–2032) and accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic, the global lender said about 79 percent of Nigerians are either living below the poverty line or remain vulnerable to falling into poverty, underscoring the scale of the country’s social and economic challenges.
According to the report, 61 percent of Nigerians live below the national poverty line, while 33 percent are classified as ultra poor, meaning they struggle to meet minimum food requirements. The World Bank estimates that about 139 million Nigerians currently live in poverty, with the highest concentration in the northern part of the country.
The findings come despite recent reforms that include the removal of petrol subsidy, exchange rate liberalisation, tighter monetary policy and tax changes aimed at stabilising the economy.
The World Bank acknowledged that those measures have begun to improve key economic indicators. It noted that economic growth accelerated from 3.5 percent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 percent during the same period in 2025, foreign reserves rose above US$42 billion, fiscal deficits narrowed and investor confidence strengthened.
However, it warned that stronger economic numbers have not yet translated into better living conditions for most households.
“Despite recent bold reforms stabilising the economy and laying the groundwork for the Renewed Hope Agenda, significant structural challenges remain,” the report stated.
The lender said persistently high inflation continues to erode household incomes, particularly among low-income families, while the rollout of social protection programmes has been slower and less effective than expected.
It added that although the reforms helped Nigeria avoid a deeper economic crisis, structural weaknesses, weak policy coordination and governance challenges continue to limit their impact on ordinary citizens.
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The World Bank identified job creation as the country’s biggest development priority over the next decade, warning that economic reforms alone will not reduce poverty unless they generate employment on a much larger scale.
According to the report, between three million and four million young Nigerians enter the labour market every year, while about 60 million more are expected to join the workforce over the next decade. Yet many remain unemployed or trapped in low-paying informal jobs that offer little opportunity to escape poverty. It also noted that one in four young Nigerians is neither employed, in education nor in training.
To tackle the challenge, the Bank said its new partnership framework will focus on supporting private sector-led growth, particularly in agriculture and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, while investing in electricity, digital infrastructure, education and healthcare.
The institution also raised concerns about Nigeria’s limited social protection system. It noted that public spending on social protection accounted for only 0.14 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2021, while just 8.5 percent of poor Nigerians were covered by any form of social safety net.
Under the new strategy, the Bank plans to support the expansion of a unified and better targeted social protection system, strengthen the national social register and improve digital payment infrastructure to reach about 41 million beneficiaries.
Beyond income, the report highlighted weaknesses in education and human capital as major obstacles to long-term poverty reduction. It found that 84 percent of Nigerian children aged between five and 14 cannot read age-appropriate texts, despite spending years in school, warning that poor learning outcomes threaten future productivity and economic growth.
World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the country’s recent economic gains provide an opportunity, but sustained reforms and stronger private sector investment will be needed to improve living standards.
“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth,” he said.
“The recent macroeconomic gains have been critical to help stabilise the economy. Translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation.”
The World Bank concluded that preserving the current reform momentum while accelerating investment, strengthening governance and creating productive jobs will determine whether Nigeria can lift millions of people out of poverty in the years ahead.
