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Nigeria’s crude oil production surges past OPEC target

Latest figures show the country has outperformed its production quota for four straight months amid a steady oil sector rebound.

Nigeria has recorded its strongest crude oil production performance in more than six years, surpassing its OPEC production quota for the fourth consecutive month in a sign that the country’s efforts to revive its upstream oil industry are beginning to yield consistent results.

Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that crude oil production averaged 1.56 million barrels per day in June, exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day by four percent. Including condensates, total daily production stood at 1.74 million barrels.

The latest figures represent the country’s highest crude oil output since April 2020 and extend a steady upward trend that has seen production rise every month since February.

Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production increased from 1.70 million barrels per day in May to 1.74 million barrels per day in June, continuing a recovery driven by improved operational performance across producing assets.

According to the regulator, fewer disruptions to oil infrastructure, better production efficiency and the successful completion of planned maintenance activities helped support higher output during the month.

While some producing assets experienced brief shutdowns, the commission said these had little effect on overall national production, allowing operators to maintain stable crude evacuation and stronger production uptime.

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The latest milestone marks a significant turnaround for Nigeria’s oil sector, which has spent much of the past few years battling crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and reduced investment that repeatedly pushed production below the country’s OPEC allocation.

Production has steadily improved over recent months, rising from 1.48 million barrels per day in February to 1.56 million in March, 1.66 million in April, 1.70 million in May and now 1.74 million barrels per day in June when condensate production is included.

The NUPRC said the continued growth reflects stronger collaboration among operators and industry stakeholders to improve asset reliability, operational efficiency and production performance.

Nigeria’s daily output also showed considerable resilience throughout June, reaching a peak of 1.89 million barrels on its highest-producing day, while the lowest daily production remained above 1.57 million barrels.

Among the country’s export terminals, Bonny and Forcados recorded the highest average production during the month, while Escravos posted a modest increase. Production from Qua Iboe declined slightly, whereas Bonga maintained relatively stable output.

The stronger production performance comes as the Federal Government intensifies efforts to raise crude output to two million barrels per day, a target seen as critical to boosting export earnings, increasing foreign exchange inflows and strengthening public finances.

Although Nigeria has struggled for years to consistently meet its OPEC allocation, recent reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act, tighter security around oil facilities and improved cooperation between regulators and operators appear to be supporting a gradual recovery.

Whether the country can sustain production above its OPEC quota in the months ahead is likely to determine how quickly it can build on the momentum and move closer to its longer-term production ambitions.

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